Stock market prediction: Quarterly S&P 500 Forecast

2025 Q1

January 2nd, 2025

Our quarterly S&P 500 forecast for 2025 Q1 (average price returns) indicates a 6.6 percent growth over the previous quarter. Our monthly forecast for January is lower than December’s average. Geopolitical problems such as the Russia-Ukraine, and the Israel-Palestine conflict cannot be captured in a forecast model. Thus, any uncertainty concerning these issues makes the 95 % confidence interval around the point forecast rather wide.    

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Stock market prediction: Monthly S&P 500 Forecast

Monthly S&P 500 forecast for January 2025

January 2nd, 2025

Our monthly S&P 500 forecast for January is a 0.22 percent drop over the average of December 2024.

The model-based forecast takes into account the changes in oil prices and yield spreads. However, a forecast model cannot possibly capture the full impact of uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, or the tensions in the Middle East.