Our monthly S&P 500 forecast for March is a 1.85 percent drop over the average of February 2025.
The model-based forecast takes into account the changes in oil prices and yield spreads. However, a forecast model cannot possibly capture the full impact of uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, or the tensions in the Middle East.
Our quarterly S&P 500 forecast for 2025 Q1 (average price returns) indicates a 1.2 percent growth over the previous quarter. For 2025 Q2 , we anticipate 3.5 percent growth over the first quarter. Our monthly forecast for March is lower than February’s average. Geopolitical problems such as the Russia-Ukraine, and the Israel-Palestine conflict cannot be captured in a forecast model. Thus, any uncertainty concerning these issues makes the 95 % confidence interval around the point forecast rather wide.
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