Our monthly S&P 500 forecast for November is a 0.88 percent drop over the average of October.
The model-based forecast takes into account the changes in oil prices and yield spreads. However, a forecast model cannot possibly capture the full impact of the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon or the US presidential election.
Our quarterly S&P 500 forecast for 2024 Q4 (average price returns) indicates a 4.6 percent growth over the previous quarter. Our monthly forecast for November is lower than October’s average. Geopolitical problems such as the Russia-Ukraine, and the Israel-Lebanon conflict cannot be captured in a forecast model. Thus, any uncertainty concerning these issues makes the 95 % confidence interval around the point forecast rather wide.
Continue reading “Stock market prediction: Quarterly S&P 500 Forecast”